Performance of Commodities since July 2010 low in S&P 500

Quick and dirty chart showing the performance of various commodities since the July 2010 low in S&P 500…(proxies)… forget Gold, look at cotton (BAL) – parabolic rise of 70% in less than 3 months!

Source: Google Finance

.INX: 1,184.26 -1.36 (-0.11%) – S&P 500 INDEX,RTH.

Battle of the Charts

A quick update on market charts… given the recent correlation it is not surprising to notice that major markets are either at key support or resistance levels… here is a summary of the major markets 

(Note: Red arrow indicates resistance & Green support) 

S&P 500 – can it hold the 200 day moving average? 

 

   

CRB – Commodites Index – 6 month high… Nearing Golden Cross (50 day moving average crossing the 200 day moving average from below)? 

 

USD Dollar – will it hold the 200 day support? It did in early August but it is also closer to the Death Cross (converse of Golden cross) 

  

 

 

   

TSX – 125 points shy of the 52-week high, RSI approaching 70 and imminent golden cross signal 

  

 

 

Fear – doesn’t matter how hard the double-dip camp tries, VIX hasn’t broken the downtrend line from mid-May but it is also resting at key support level of 20 

  

 

 

I’m curious to see which side wins…I’m still biased to the downside given the fundamental picture.

Commodities & Baltic Dry Index Diverge

Commodities are higher today even when the Baltic Dry Index is poised to post a 7th consective weekly decline totaling 50+%… the last time BDI declined for 7 consective weeks was from Sep 09 to Oct 09 for a massive 86% drop… prior to that drop the BDI declined for 9 consecutive weeks for 44% decline!… Is the current drop a prelude to a bigger this Fall?

Source: stockcharts.com

This chart shows negative divergence between the BDI and CRB Commodities Index… the BDI is considered a leading indicator and hence the Commodities index should follow the BDI… are commodities meant to go down?

Source: stockcharts.com