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Archive for December, 2010

Rising Interest Rates – thanks to QE?

December 16, 2010 Leave a comment

If you haven’t already heard so…interest rates have reversed their downward trend to dramatically move up since the November Federal Reserve meeting, Quantitative Easing (QE2) announcement… QE2 is supposed keep US interest rates low… would you have thought that it would affect rates elsewhere?

Year-to-Date chart of Canadian interest rates…

As marked on the chart, interest rates in Canada have risen significantly over the last 6 weeks… especially the medium to long term rates in the 2-10 year terms. The 5-year rate is at 2.56%, same as in mid-July.

Here is the term chart or the Canadian yield curve… see the parallel shift in yield across all terms!

This means, borrowing costs will increase in proportion… yes, including mortgage rates, particularly fixed rates.

The 5-year fixed rates are as low as they have ever been… but they will be rising shortly; see this

The Bank of Canada hasn’t indicated any shift in monetary policy since the last rate hike in Sep-2010… so why are rates in Canada rising? Possible reasons:

· Higher inflation expectation

· Better than expected economic growth

· Bond markets are overbought

· Rising risk of default (!)

Stay tuned… I will explore each of these possibilities in the coming days…

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return from hibernation!

December 8, 2010 1 comment

been a while since I posted… new work keeping me uber busy to post for the past couple months…

i will try to post these items:

  • recent housing numbers…
  • yield curve… shot up since the Fed meeting
  • technical analysis update
  • …and… cfa musings

stay tuned!