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Posts Tagged ‘toronto’

TSX trading near 2-year low… 11000 next downside target?

September 29, 2011 Leave a comment

Daily Chart:

Weekly chart:

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Toronto housing market – update

April 25, 2011 Leave a comment

I haven’t had much time to write since buying a house and selling my condo… if I can convince myself, I’m never going to move again, that means not buying another principal residence.

It has been over a month since the new mortgage rules took effect… is there any early effect on real-estate markets? Let’s look at the GTA housing numbers for March 2011…

  • Year-over-year Prices up 5%
  • Year-over-year Sales down 11%
  • Month-over-Month Prices up 0.4% vs 5-year average of 0%
  • Sales up 15% over 5-year average Sales

I don’t think there is anything to worry about yet but I think we need to keep an eye on Sales numbers… -11% sounds like a lot but 2008-2010 were outliers for Sales numbers

…and mid-April numbers are:

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,444 sales during the first two weeks of April 2011 – a three per cent decrease compared to the first two weeks of April 2010. The number of new listings was down by 21 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Again, nothing to worry about here either. 3%… however, average prices have shot up!

  • Year-over-year Prices up 10.4% vs a range of -3 to +13 % over the last 5 years!! (with that kind of variation, averages become meaningless)
  • Month-over-Month Prices up 6% vs 5-year average of 4% !

I have been saying for the last year that this kind of price increases is unsustainable and I reiterate it here.

Resale house prices gone parabolic in York Region – view from G0

March 1, 2011 3 comments

I have seen 3 houses in the last 2 weeks and every single one went over asking… this is in Markham/Richmond Hill area.

# List Sale Price
1 699900 705000
2 699900 725000
3 745000 758000

Couple Observations:

1. Similar houses in the area sold for under 635k just 6 months ago… that is more than 10% increase in less than 6 months!… If the trend continues, resale house prices will be up more than 20% in 2011!

2. Every single house had more than 3 offers clean offers – no financing, no inspection!

3. And all of them sold in less than 3 days of listing…

3 houses is nowhere near a constituent sample even if they are all in a small city block BUT this is the trend… I have spoken to a few realtors over the last month and that is what they say…

In contrast New Home prices have increased close to the inflation rate… around 2-3%

If you are in real-estate… or not… what are you seeing on ground zero?

Hysteria…Mania? Herding like donkeys? Sensible investors? Speculators? Pent-up demand? No Supply?…

Pouring cold water on ‘improved’ housing activity

February 17, 2011 2 comments

Canadian real-estate has received more than its fair share of coverage in main stream media lately…

The quacks at CREA say housing activity  “improved” …

Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity rose 4.5 per cent in January 2011 compared to the previous month, reaching the highest level since April 2010. Led by Vancouver and Toronto…

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards came in 6.6 per cent below levels in January 2010. This was the smallest year-over-year decline since May 2010.

Now if it hadn’t been for Flaherty’s tinkering with mortgage rules and pulling demand forward and creating a buying panic, sales activity would be lower…agree? I will explain why…Lets look at GTA since it accounts for the biggest share of Canadian housing activity and it led the “improvement”…

The Toronto Real Estate Board publishes mid-month &  monthly sales figures;

Mid-month figures for January 2011

January 19, 2011 — Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 1,563 sales during the first two weeks of January 2011 – an 11 per cent decrease compared to the first two weeks of January 2010. See details.

Until 15-Jan-2011, sales in GTA were 11% lower than Jan 2010… then on 17-Jan-2011… The federal government acts prudently (in my opinion) and announces new mortgage lending rules… How did those changes affect sales for the rest of Jan 2011?

Monthly figures for January 2011

February 4, 2011 — Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,337 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in January 2011. This result was 13 per cent lower than the record result reported in January 2010. See details.

So even after taking some heat of the housing market and creating an apparent demand pull, January 2011 sales were 13% lower than Jan 2010… Perhaps 2010 was a record so maybe not a good year to compare?…  Sales were 3.5% lower compared to the average sales from 2006-2010… even when including the paltry 2670 units in 2009!! (it is a clear outlier)

Moving on to Feb…

February 17, 2011 — Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 3,084 sales during the first two weeks of February 2011 – a 13 per cent decrease compared to the first two weeks of February 2010. See details.

One month since the announcement and sales are lower than last year… if there was no government intervention, logic dictates that sales would be even higher because people (first time home buyers) would rush to buy a home on more favourable terms.

Admittedly though, compared to average Feb sales between 2006-2010, mid-month Feb 2011 sales were 6.2% higher.

via Toronto Real Estate Board.

Housing Update

January 5, 2011 Leave a comment

I have been meaning to post an update on the Toronto housing market but waiting for TREB to release the December numbers (and annual by extension)… which I think should be out any day now.

GTA Housing Update, Sales & Average Price Seasonal pattern

October 19, 2010 Leave a comment

I am shocked to see that the average single family house price for the first half of October 2010 is $444644! This is only two thousand dollars away from the all-time high of $446593 reached in May 2010… I thought house prices peaked in Spring and stayed flat or moved down for the rest of the seasons… but the chart below says something different

I will summarize the above chart to decide when house prices peak within a calendar year:

In which month do house prices peak in a year?

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
April Oct April Oct May

And what about Sales activity?

 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
May May May June April

The above chart is based on the average price as reported by the Toronto Real-Estate Board… the following chart is based on the Teranet House Price Index and it tells a much different story… although I wouldn’t interpret the index data in the same way as raw price data mostly because of the index methodology.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Dec Aug Dec Jul

It is clearly towards the end of the year and that is obviously due to the inherent inflation!

Update: Forgot to include seasonal sales pattern from Teranet House Price Index  data… Sales peak in the summer months of Jun-Aug

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Jun Aug Aug Jul Aug Jun Aug Jun Aug Aug Jul Jun

GTA housing market in September 2010

October 5, 2010 3 comments

House prices across GTA increased in September 2010 keeping in line with the monthly trend of positive month-over-month change.

2010 Sales Average Price YoY (%) MoM (%)
January 4986 $409,058 19.04% -0.70%
February 7291 $431,509 19.43% 5.49%
March 10430 $434,696 20.07% 0.74%
April 10898 $437,600 13.47% 0.67%
May 9470 $446,593 12.89% 2.06%
June 8442 $435,034 7.69% -2.59%
July 6564 $420,482 6.34% -3.35%
August 6232 $411,012 5.95% -2.25%
September 6310 $427,329 5.03% 3.97%

The average price for September is about 4.3% below the recent peak in May 2010. The monthly price increase of 4% is quite surprising given the softer sales numbers.