Home > market analysis, real-estate > GTA housing market largely followed its seasonal pattern in 2010

GTA housing market largely followed its seasonal pattern in 2010

Here is the final update for 2010

Monthly Prices followed the seasonal pattern rather religiously!

Source: Toronto Real-Estate Board

Sales was not different, although the overall level of sales (~86k) was less than 2009 & 2007.

Source: Toronto Real-Estate Board

I will admit that through 2010, my housing related posts had an inherent negative bias… I will end the 2010 housing post on a more positive note at least by one measure.

Look at the long-term chart of house price trends in GTA… the 5-year compound average growth rate (CAGR) in GTA house prices is 5.22%… in the long term, this rate should equal the growth rate in the GTA economy, personal income and all other products and services.

Source: Toronto Real-Estate Board

Now I don’t have hard data for GTA economic indicators and I doubt the GTA economy grew by >5% annually in the last 5 years…. BUT consider this: Canada’s economy grew 3.55% annually from 2005-2009 and for the same period, GTA house prices rose 4.16% annually…

Do I still think GTA house prices are over the top, perhaps not so much given that GTA’s economy most likely outpaces the rest of Canada (likely due to increasing immigrants)… yes, there are other factors that affect house prices but in the long run… all growth rates should converge!

Let’s hope 2011 is slower so I can buy a house 😉 !

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: