Home > CFA L2, equities, quantitative analysis > Market places 10% premium over takeover price – pricing Potash at $143

Market places 10% premium over takeover price – pricing Potash at $143

This morning, Potash Corp rejected a takover offer of $130 (US) from global miner BHP Billiton citing it as “grossly inadequate” As of close yesterday, Potash was trading at USD 112.15… the takeover offer constitutes a 16% premium over yesterday’s close.

The highest Potash has ever traded – $230.09 in June 2008

52 Week High/Low – 126.98 – 83.75

Potash opened around $143 today which is $13 or 10% more than the takeover offer… I was on the call this morning with Potash and here is what I gather from the discussion:

Board of Directors are:

  • open to maximizing shareholder value i.e. open to competing offers
  • didn’t comment on expected/target 
  • expect fertilizer market to grow in 2011
  • unware of government position if there was an adequate offer from a competitor. Federal government could potential block acquisition by imposing foreign ownership restrictions similar to Cameco which is the global leader in Uranium
  • didn’t comment on a potential reverse takeover of acquirer

I’m waiting for Analyst reaction on what the approriate target should be…

Prior to the takeover offer, here is the target price by a couple investment banks:

  • CIBC World Markets had a 12-18 month price target of $105 (as of 16 Aug 2010)
  • ScotiaCapital – C$138 (as of 29 Jul 2010)
  • UBS – US$120

 Question:

What is the intrinsic value or Net Asset Value of Potash Corp and what is fair target price given the current and prospective agriculture environment?

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