Where are emerging markets going? Do the emerging market central banks and Treasurers have the balls to stop inflation or they can’t live without the growth on stereoids?
The MSCI iShares Emerging Markets index has failed twice to break the 2008 highs… are we heading lower to test May 2010 levels or break the 2008 highs?
Quick and dirty chart showing the performance of various commodities since the July 2010 low in S&P 500…(proxies)… forget Gold, look at cotton (BAL) – parabolic rise of 70% in less than 3 months!
Source: Google Finance
Close to overbought territory… Japanese equity markets clobbered due to 15-year high Yen.
Look at Australia and City-State Singapore…astronomical rise in the southern hemisphere…are we in for a second round of housing bubble?
Nice chart/matrix showing correlations between several asset classes and markets
click for giant chart
hat tip Trader’s Narrative
David Rosenberg sheds some light from a quantitative perspective in this AM’s report …
When we go to the weekly data from the Fed, we see that “trading assets” on commercial bank balance sheets expanded to $325 billion in the past two weeks from $297 billion. And, when we go to the Commitment of Traders report, we see that there has been a big swing in the net speculation position on the S&P 500 “E-minis” on the Mercantile Exchange (futures and options) to a net long position of 28,172 contracts from 15,155 net shorts just two weeks ago. That’s a big part of the bounce-back — prop traders and short-coverings. Nothing fundamental here, as far as we can see.
S&P 500 is up 1+% on increasing trade deficit & successful sale of Greek bonds…
Even though S&P 500 head & shoulders top – neckline breached decisively… last week’s rally has been on low volume and market is testing support at 20 day moving average…
Source: stockcharts.com
the next couple weeks will provide some fundamentals signals on where the market could go for the rest of the year…
How much have major stock markets worldwide dropped from their 52-week highs after yesterdays 2-4% drop?
Source: Google Finance, WSJ
Where do we go from here? Most bearish commentators expect a 20-30% correction from the recent peak (52-week high) before another sustained rally… Can we expect another 5-15% drop? Is the correction almost over or are we in for more downside?
Yesterday I pointed out the bearish technical signals on the S&P500 charts which – here are charts for some of the markets above with similar signals (mostly bearish)
UK – FTSE 100
Chart Souce: stockcharts.com
Japan – Nikkei 225
Chart Source: stockcharts.com
Canada – TSX Composite Index
Chart Souce: stockcharts.com
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