Archive
Emerging Markets – Can’t get past the (inflation) hump?
Where are emerging markets going? Do the emerging market central banks and Treasurers have the balls to stop inflation or they can’t live without the growth on stereoids?
The MSCI iShares Emerging Markets index has failed twice to break the 2008 highs… are we heading lower to test May 2010 levels or break the 2008 highs?
Technical Analysis of Canadian & US Financials
I am going use the Financial Sector Spyder ETF XLF as a proxy for US financials and S&P TSX Capped Financials Sector ETF XFN (listed on TSX) as a proxy for Canadian Financials…
Since making a 52-week high in April 2010, the Canadian Financial Sector has tried to break the downtrend (50/200 day moving average) 4 times in the last 3 months and has failed each time…
Negative:
- 4 failed attempts to breakout
- Death Cross (the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average from above)
- 50 & 200 day moving averages broken to the downside
- Downtrend line broken to the downside
Positive: Support at current levels (21.27)
Source: stockcharts.com
the US financials chart is pretty similar…
Negative:
- 5 tries to breakout without any success
- Death Cross
- 50 & 200 day moving averages broken to the downside
- MACD crossover
Positive: Downtrend support is still intact
Source: stockcharts.com
All-in-all… technicals are similar for both financial sectors and are likely to follow the broader market trends…
…perhaps the fundamentals tell a different story
Performance of Commodity ETFs – worse than mutual funds?
There has been a lot of chatter about the performance of commodity based Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs)… Commodity ETFs surged in popularity circa 2006 making commodities a de facto asset class for the retail investor who was deprived of the higher returns… ETFs allowed retail investors to easily participate in the commodities boom-bust-boom cycle of 2007-2009…
Here is a roundup of articles on commodity ETFs
ETFs Imperil Commodity Investors
The following are links to Canadian ETFs listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange
And here is a table of Commodity ETFs in Canada covering Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Silver & Gold. The ones in bold are not leveraged, all other ETFs are leveraged…
There are plenty of ETFs that track equity indexes comprised of commodity stocks and will be a topic for another time
| Name | Ticker | Type | QMV (C$) 30-June-2010 |
| Claymore Gold Bullion ETF | CGL | Commodity | 516751697.2 |
| Claymore Natural Gas Commodity ETF | GAS | Commodity | 177625000 |
| Horizons BetaPro COMEX Silver ETF | HUZ | Commodity | 6360000 |
| Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Inverse ETF | HIO | Commodity | 5560050 |
| Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Long Crude Oil/Short Natural Gas Spread ETF | HON | Commodity | 7638000 |
| Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Long Natural Gas/Short Crude Oil Spread ETF | HNO | Commodity | 12361500 |
| Horizons BetaPro Winter-Term NYMEX Crude Oil ETF | HUC | Commodity | 5070000 |
| Horizons BetaPro Winter-Term NYMEX Natural Gas ETF | HUN | Commodity | 3475000 |
| Horizons BetaPro Comex Copper Bear Plus ETF | HKD | Commodity Leveraged |
5216650 |
| Horizons BetaPro Comex Copper Bull Plus ETF | HKU | Commodity Leveraged |
4805075 |
| Horizons BetaPro COMEX Gold Bullion Bear Plus ETF | HBD | Commodity Leveraged |
4595500 |
| Horizons BetaPro COMEX Gold Bullion Bull Plus ETF | HBU | Commodity Leveraged |
75926900 |
| Horizons BetaPro COMEX Silver Bear Plus ETF | HZD | Commodity Leveraged |
3024000 |
| Horizons BetaPro COMEX Silver Bull Plus ETF | HZU | Commodity Leveraged |
10230500 |
| Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF | HOD | Commodity Leveraged |
35130200 |
| Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus ETF | HOU | Commodity Leveraged |
592141200 |
| Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bear Plus ETF | HND | Commodity Leveraged |
43544800 |
| Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bull Plus ETF | HNU | Commodity Leveraged |
539477400 |
ETFs were born out of trading wine securities
… surprised? I was too… go read the history of how ETFs were started and some of the benefits, disadvantages and how the giant commodity ETFs create a risk free arbitrage profit (read cash cow)for professional futures traders…
