Quick and dirty chart showing the performance of various commodities since the July 2010 low in S&P 500…(proxies)… forget Gold, look at cotton (BAL) – parabolic rise of 70% in less than 3 months!
Source: Google Finance
A quick update on market charts… given the recent correlation it is not surprising to notice that major markets are either at key support or resistance levels… here is a summary of the major markets
(Note: Red arrow indicates resistance & Green support)
S&P 500 – can it hold the 200 day moving average?
CRB – Commodites Index – 6 month high… Nearing Golden Cross (50 day moving average crossing the 200 day moving average from below)?
USD Dollar – will it hold the 200 day support? It did in early August but it is also closer to the Death Cross (converse of Golden cross)
TSX – 125 points shy of the 52-week high, RSI approaching 70 and imminent golden cross signal
Fear – doesn’t matter how hard the double-dip camp tries, VIX hasn’t broken the downtrend line from mid-May but it is also resting at key support level of 20
I’m curious to see which side wins…I’m still biased to the downside given the fundamental picture.
Commodities are higher today even when the Baltic Dry Index is poised to post a 7th consective weekly decline totaling 50+%… the last time BDI declined for 7 consective weeks was from Sep 09 to Oct 09 for a massive 86% drop… prior to that drop the BDI declined for 9 consecutive weeks for 44% decline!… Is the current drop a prelude to a bigger this Fall?
Source: stockcharts.com
This chart shows negative divergence between the BDI and CRB Commodities Index… the BDI is considered a leading indicator and hence the Commodities index should follow the BDI… are commodities meant to go down?
Source: stockcharts.com
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