Canadian house prices down 5% in 2 months
… whats new? Not much really… here is a tabular summary of relevant stats which is never mentioned in the news release…
|July 2010||June 2010||May 2010|
|Sales over prior month||-6.6%||-8.8%||-10.6%|
House prices peaked in May 2010 and have been trending down since… The 3-month trend in average house prices is clearly down – from 347k to 330k… for 5% drop in 2 months!
It is not in CREA’s interest to provide a negative statistic because that will only worsen the negative housing sentiment… where most buyers are in a wait-n-watch mode due to the extensive media coverage of housing lately…The negative sentiment will continue to prevail due to the volatility in other asset classes (equities down 5% last week) and a general worry about the global economy…
…national sales activity continued to decline… mostly due to fewer sales in BC & Ontario which they attribute to the introduction of HST in July…
Sales down 30% compared to last year and that is because of HST!?!?… utter rubbish… For one, HST only applies to new homes… if it is because of HST, then why doesn’t CREA publish a breakdown of New Home Sales vs Resale Homes and then compare the sales activity?
Infact, new homes sales have been slowing for quite some time. The change in new house prices has been quite muted compared to resales homes…
Update: David Rosenberg’s AM musings on Canadian Housing:
As foreshadowed by earlier-released large-city data, Canadian resale home sales fell by 6.8% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis, the sixth decline in seven months (on a YoY basis sales were down 30%). Vancouver and Toronto saw some of the largest declines, as the HST kicked in B.C. and Ontario, dampening sales activity. But even outside of Toronto and Vancouver, other cities saw large YoY sales decline — Calgary (-41%), Halifax (-26%), Edmonton (-39%) and Winnipeg (-13%) for example — so it was more than just the HST-effect driving the declines.